Stage 19 - Mondane => Alpe d'Huez

Three days left to go in the Tour de France.  It is close, but not decided yet.  How will that change tonight?  Will we know our winner by tomorrow?  Will we know who's lost?  And who will win on Alpe d'Huez?

Today started with - guess what? - another big breakaway.  This time 14 riders jumped off 10 kilometres from the starting line at Mondane, though they weren't destined to be very long-lived on a mountain stage like d'Huez.  The surprising and yet not-surprising move of the day was from our favourite spicer-of-the-mix, Alberto Contador.  Rounding a corner on the extreme inside of the pack, he surged ahead as the gradient increased of the corner and simply didn't look back.  Andy Schleck was right behind him as always, Cadel Evans fought his way to their wheel, and Thomas Voeckler did that thing he does these days where he supercedes his actual abilities and just does what needs doing to protect the yellow jersey.  Unfortunately for Andy, brother Frank couldn't follow the move and waited behind with the rest of Leopard Trek in the peloton.

This was where things got interesting.  Five kilometres from the top of the first climb, the Col du Telegraphe, Contador went again, and while Andy followed, this time both Cadel and Voeckler floundered.  So maybe it wasn't unexpected when Cadel first stopped to check his bike and then, clearly unhappy with it, waited for the team car to change it for a new one.  This was a definite turning-point in this year's Tour.  Cadel had lost enough time on the leaders to be counting it in minutes, not seconds, and there were only three days left, two if you discount the ceremonial ride into Paris.  Could he do it?

While Voeckler sat out in no-man's land, trying to catch up to the two leaders but never quite strong enough, Cadel dropped back to the peloton, being lead by Ivan Basso's Liquigas team, for a bit of support from his own team.  Right out the front, Andy and Alberto were chugging neatly through the forlorn remnants of the breakaway that couldn't take the heat of an Alpine climb.   Only Movistar stage winner Rui da Costa and AG2R climber Christophe Riblon kept up with the big boys after they'd been caught, and the four continued up once more to the heights of the Col du Galibier.

Back at the peloton, BMC had taken over the pace-making from Liquigas, but as we've seen many times this Tour Cadel wanted to ride his own race, and that's what he did.  Sitting at the front end of the peloton, he soon rode them off his wheel and began encroaching on Voeckler, who decided to sit up and wait for the septet of Cadel, Ivan Basso, Samuel Sanchez, Frank Schleck, and three of Voeckler's own Europcar teammates.

And this is where is starts getting messy.  Sanchez jumps off the front, Europcar's Anthony Charteau and Pierre Rolland chase, Voeckler starts to tire, Charteau drops back to Voeckler, Rolland carries on.  Crossing the top of the Galibier, it's Schleck followed by his friends, then Sanchez, Cadel followed a few seconds later by his group, assorted others chasing, Voeckler with two teammates and then the peloton itself.  On the descent, Sanchez catches the leading four, Cadel's group consolidates itself and then effectively chases down the leaders, catching them and forming one big lead group with 25 kilometres to go.

White jersey hopeful Rolland went off the front first, along with Canadian Ryder Hesjedal, and the two had a 47-second gap open at the foot of the Alpe.  In the meantime, Voeckler's teammates had paced him back to the main group to try and stay competitive in the GC.  Only 15 seconds ahead of Andy Schleck, Voeckler's yellow jersey was on shaky ground.  Behind Rolland and Hesjedal, a big push from one of Leopard Trek's domestiques saw riders start tumbling off the back again, including Voeckler and the current white jersey wearer, Estonian Rein Taaramae.  Then Contador attacked at 12.5 kilometres out, catching up to Rolland and Hesjedal before Andy and Cadel could catch him.  Soon after catching the pair, Contador went on ahead, with Rolland chasing his wheel.

At the 10.5-kilometre mark, a group containing Sammy Sanchez and Frank Schleck made it up to Cadel and Andy's group - yes, they're all over the mountain again.  The Schlecks tried to make Cadel's life difficult, but he took everything they threw at him easily.  When Peter Velits (HTC-Highroad) went off the front, Sanchez chased him, passed him and caught up to Rolland, who, despite the Spaniard's urgings, refused to do any leading.  Rolland sat comfortably on the back of Sanchez's wheel until they caught Alberto, and then promptly took off, leaving the two exhausted Spaniards in the dust to come in second and third, while the young French took his first TdF stage win and the white jersey.

So after all that kerfuffle, the changing hands of the white jersey and the unexpected stage winner who wears it, Cadel is now only 57 seconds down on new race leader Andy Schleck going into tomorrow's time trial, and a laughable four seconds down on second-placed Frank.  While Andy will savour his yellow over the next 24 hours, the question remains as to whether Andy can do a brilliant time trial to save that yellow jersey, or whether in 24 hours, that yellow will be Cadel's.

Stage 14 - Saint-Gaudens => Plateau de Beille

In every Tour de France which has had a stage finish on the Plateau de Beille, the winner of the stage has gone on to win the Tour.  I highly doubt that this will ring true this year - the stage winner is not a big name; in fact, this is their first win in their entire professional career of seven years.  But like all sport cycling is constantly improving, and I suspect that not only is the quality of riders by this 2011 Tour higher than the last time the Tour rode to Plateau de Beille, but that the high-quality riders are closer together in ability than they have been previously.  In short, there are more equally-brilliant riders than every other time the winner of Plateau de Beille has won the Tour de France.

Today's breakaway was a surprising one - 24 riders, including three from the GC teams of yellow jersey hopefuls Cadel Evans (BMC) and Frank and Andy Schleck (Leopard Trek).  A breakaway of this size was never going to succeed, so some of the riders decided to go it alone.  Julien El Fares of Cofidis and the team leader of FDJ, Sandy Casar, leapt ahead of the pack and were soon joined by Garmin-Cervelo's David Millar.  As the reached the first of the climbs Millar was unable to keep up, but several others from the original breakaway of 24 came forward to join Casar and El Fares to make a total of 11 riders, including Jens Voigt and Linus Gerdemann, the teammates of the Schleck brothers.

Europcar, protecting the yellow jersey of Thomas Voeckler, began setting the pace, before Leopard Trek took over and began upping the ante, putting the pressure on the peloton as they began traversing the second and first category climbs mi-parcours.  Unfortunately Stuey O'Grady may have been warning the riders behind him of the upcoming bends of the descents, but clearly not all got the message, as Rabobank's Laurens Ten Dam went off the bitumen and performed what can only be described as a faceplant over the handlebars into a ditch.  Patched up, he continued chasing, but up in the breakaway Jens Voigt wasn't having any more luck.  Having chosen a nice place to crash, he promptly went off the road into a large pile of soft ferns, and quickly re-emerged, bike held over his head.  The new bike did him no good either, for his wheel slipped on the sun-warmed tar of the road and he hit the deck again.  The peloton soon reeled him in and he joined the "Leopard Trek Express", chuffing Andy and Frank right on up the climbs - the rest of the peloton were participation optional!

Once they hit the final climb, the hors-categorie montee up to the Plateau de Beille, the result was inevitable.  Leopard Trek kept going as long as they had breath and rider, stamping out a pace designed to shred the peloton to pieces.  As usual they did a good job, only a few riders still able to follow the leaders by the time the Leopard domestiques could do no more.  The leaders themselves did the rest of the work, setting a pace only they could handle as they swept past broken remnants of breakaway and attacks long forgotten and now futile.

Though many were saying it was Frank who looked strongest on the climb up to Luz-Ardiden two days ago, today it was Andy Schleck who parried and feinted like a master swordsman, attacking several times on the way up the plateau.  By now the group only held 10 - Andy and his brother; Cadel Evans; Alberto Contador, Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale); Jelle Vanendert (Omega Pharma-Lotto); Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi); Jean-Christophe Peraud (AG2R La Mondiale); and yellow jersey-wearer Thomas Voeckler and teammate Pierre Rolland.  Lampre's Damiano Cunego clung to the back for a while, but as the group reached the higher climes Cunego had long since disappeared.  Despite Andy's attacks, he achieved no time advantage, for there was always someone waiting to jump on his back wheel, and the rest of the group followed suit.  Though he never actively chased as did Voeckler or Evans, Contador remained in the group, following every attack as closely as all the rest.  Basso seemed to be riding at his own tempo, sometimes falling off the back of the group and at other times leaping to the front to lead it, unable to keep up with the accelerations and decelerations of the others.

The four main rivals were so busy concentrating on each other they didn't notice at first when Jelle Vanendert made his move and got clear, and little did they care, either.  Not high enough on the GC table to be a threat, Evans, Contador and the Schlecks were conserving their energy to battle each either, so neither did the follow when Sammy Sanchez decided now was his time.  Unable to catch the Belgian, the stage played out as a mirror image of Luz-Ardiden, when Sanchez won, Vanendert took second and the main riders shadowed each other to the finish.  This time, however, the Belgian unknown was riding to his first ever victory on the pro circuit, shadowed by the world champion.  As the "peloton" of the top GC riders came in, Andy clearly felt a bit antsy and sprinted for the finish, leaving the others to come in a few seconds behind, not enough to change the overall standings.

The remarkable rider of the day had to go to Thomas Voeckler, who, even though he eventually lost teammate Pierre Rolland who had paced him up Luz-Ardiden and is likely a better climber, still managed to chase the big names up to the top and challenge them for the lead.  If Andy, Cadel & Friends don't manage to dislodge him when they reach the Alps, Tommy Voeckler could suddenly be dangerously close to winning the French a Tour de France.