Why Cadel Needs Andy

Alberto Contador has a skill that is almost unique in road racing – he has the ability to sprint full-pelt up the highest of mountains. I say 'almost unique' because there is one other rider who also makes the Alps look like a Sunday race meet – the Luxembourg hero, Andy Schleck. Only these two can do on a mountain what Mark Cavendish does on a flat, but there are of course other excellent climbers in the peloton, some of whom can keep pace with the dynamic duo when they start playing cat-and-mouse with each other. I'm thinking specifically of Cadel Evans. While he can't leap into a massive sprint like Contador and Schleck, Evans can build up his speed to match the pair and stay with them as they race away up France's highest climbs. There are merely a handful of other riders with any hope of doing the same, explaining why Contador, Evans and Schleck have dominated the Tour de France for the past few years.

But with Contador out on a doping suspension and Schleck out with a broken sacrum, Evans is the only one of the super-speed trio left to contend this year's Tour, and this year he has a very strong, very dangerous opponent to face – Bradley Wiggins. The Brit is every bit as canny as Evans on the flats, even a little stronger than him on the time trials and has a team to make everyone green with envy, and the only real advantage over Wiggins that Evans has is in the mountains, where Evans is a slightly stronger descender and – maybe – a slightly stronger climber.

But the real question is, will Evans bring his mountain-climbing speed into play? In recent years his punchy speed has always been a defensive reaction to moves made by Contador and Schleck, done simply to keep his chief rivals in check, always knowing that he could stick it to them in a time trial, his real strength. But the strategy won't work with Wiggins, who can usually better Evans in a race against the clock, meaning Evans needs to change tactics this year and gain his lead in the mountains. But without Contador or Schleck to provoke a reaction, can Evans turn his defensive skill into an offensive attack that will leave Brad Wiggins far enough behind to give Evans the advantage? Short of a twist to make a novelist jealous, a sprint up the mountains may be the only way for the Australian to hold off a British attack on his crown.